How Is Machine Learning Used in Trading? (BEN Stock Forecast)

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We evaluate Franklin Templeton prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEN stock.

Keywords: BEN, Franklin Templeton, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Reaction Function
2. Investment Risk
3. Prediction Modeling

BEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Complex networks in stock market and stock price volatility pattern prediction are the important issues in stock price research. Previous studies have used historical information regarding a single stock to predict the future trend of the stock's price, seldom considering comovement among stocks in the same market. In this study, in order to extract the information about relation stocks for prediction, we try to combine the complex network method with machine learning to predict stock price patterns. We consider Franklin Templeton Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of BEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BEN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BEN Franklin Templeton
Time series to forecast n: 08 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Franklin Templeton assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEN stock.

Financial State Forecast for BEN Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Operational Risk	62	82
Market Risk	39	59
Technical Analysis	47	72
Fundamental Analysis	86	63
Risk Unsystematic	45	51

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 879 signals.

References

1. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
2. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
3. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
4. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
6. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
7. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BEN stock?
A: BEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is BEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BEN Stock.
Q: Is Franklin Templeton stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Franklin Templeton is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for BEN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for BEN stock?
A: The prediction period for BEN is (n+1 year)

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