Is CVS stock expected to rise?

In today's economy, there is a profound impact of the stock market or equity market. Prediction of stock prices is extremely complex, chaotic, and the presence of a dynamic environment makes it a great challenge. Behavioural finance suggests that decision-making process of investors is to a very great extent influenced by the emotions and sentiments in response to a particular news. Thus, to support the decisions of the investors, we have presented an approach combining two distinct fields for analysis of stock exchange. We evaluate CVS Health prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CVS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CVS stock.

Keywords: CVS, CVS Health, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

CVS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Recently, numerous investigations for stock price prediction and portfolio management using machine learning have been trying to develop efficient mechanical trading systems. But these systems have a limitation in that they are mainly based on the supervised learning which is not so adequate for learning problems with long-term goals and delayed rewards. This paper proposes a method of applying reinforcement learning, suitable for modeling and learning various kinds of interactions in real situations, to the problem of stock price prediction. We consider CVS Health Stock Decision Process with Polynomial Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CVS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CVS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CVS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CVS CVS Health
Time series to forecast n: 09 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CVS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

CVS Health assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CVS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CVS stock.

Financial State Forecast for CVS Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	Ba3
Operational Risk	88	31
Market Risk	77	85
Technical Analysis	87	69
Fundamental Analysis	56	79
Risk Unsystematic	78	54

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 829 signals.

References

1. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
2. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
3. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
4. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
7. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CVS stock?
A: CVS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is CVS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CVS Stock.
Q: Is CVS Health stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CVS Health is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CVS stock?
A: The consensus rating for CVS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CVS stock?
A: The prediction period for CVS is (n+3 month)

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