Predicting stock market prices is crucial subject at the present economy. Hence, the tendency of researchers towards new opportunities to predict the stock market has been increased. Researchers have found that, historical stock data and Search Engine Queries, social mood from user generated content in sources like Twitter, Web News has a predictive relationship to the future stock prices. Lack of information such as social mood was there in past studies and in this research, we discuss an effective method to analyze multiple information sources to fill the information gap and predict an accurate future value. We evaluate Global Payments prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GPN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GPN stock.

Keywords: GPN, Global Payments, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
2. Prediction Modeling
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals ## GPN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Neural networks, as an intelligent data mining method, have been used in many different challenging pattern recognition problems such as stock market prediction. However, there is no formal method to determine the optimal neural network for prediction purpose in the literature. In this paper, two kinds of neural networks, a feed forward multi layer Perceptron (MLP) and an Elman recurrent network, are used to predict a company's stock value based on its stock share value history. We consider Global Payments Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of GPN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GPN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## GPN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GPN Global Payments
Time series to forecast n: 10 Oct 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GPN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Global Payments assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the GPN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GPN stock.

### Financial State Forecast for GPN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 3762
Market Risk5643
Technical Analysis3769
Fundamental Analysis4567
Risk Unsystematic5875

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 724 signals.

## References

1. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
2. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
3. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
4. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
5. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
7. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GPN stock?
A: GPN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is GPN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GPN Stock.
Q: Is Global Payments stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Global Payments is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GPN stock?
A: The consensus rating for GPN is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for GPN stock?
A: The prediction period for GPN is (n+3 month)