Is SMI Index Stock Expected to Go Up? (Stock Forecast)

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms. We evaluate SMI Index prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.


Keywords: SMI Index, SMI Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

SMI Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We consider SMI Index Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of SMI Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMI Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SMI Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMI Index SMI Index
Time series to forecast n: 13 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

SMI Index assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for SMI Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Operational Risk 5772
Market Risk3680
Technical Analysis5183
Fundamental Analysis6762
Risk Unsystematic8079

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 476 signals.

References

  1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
  2. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  3. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  6. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  7. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SMI Index stock?
A: SMI Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is SMI Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMI Index Stock.
Q: Is SMI Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SMI Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for SMI Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SMI Index stock?
A: The prediction period for SMI Index is (n+1 year)

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