Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate Molina Healthcare prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MOH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MOH stock.

Keywords: MOH, Molina Healthcare, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. Can statistics predict the future?
3. Market Outlook ## MOH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This study aims to predict the direction of stock prices by integrating time-varying effective transfer entropy (ETE) and various machine learning algorithms. At first, we explore that the ETE based on 3 and 6 months moving windows can be regarded as the market explanatory variable by analyzing the association between the financial crises and Granger-causal relationships among the stocks. We consider Molina Healthcare Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of MOH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MOH stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## MOH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MOH Molina Healthcare
Time series to forecast n: 18 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MOH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

Molina Healthcare assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MOH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MOH stock.

### Financial State Forecast for MOH Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4441
Market Risk8138
Technical Analysis8073
Fundamental Analysis4965
Risk Unsystematic5482

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 838 signals.

## References

1. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
2. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
4. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
5. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
6. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
7. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MOH stock?
A: MOH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is MOH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MOH Stock.
Q: Is Molina Healthcare stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Molina Healthcare is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MOH stock?
A: The consensus rating for MOH is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MOH stock?
A: The prediction period for MOH is (n+16 weeks)