In this paper a Bayesian regularized artificial neural network is proposed as a novel method to forecast financial market behavior. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilized as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of individual stocks. The prediction of stock price movement is generally considered to be a challenging and important task for financial time series analysis. We evaluate CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CGO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CGO stock.

Keywords: LON:CGO, CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
2. Market Outlook
3. What is a prediction confidence?

## LON:CGO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. We consider CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CGO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CGO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:CGO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CGO CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 31 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CGO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC

1. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
2. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
3. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
4. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CGO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CGO stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:CGO CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba3
Operational Risk 8841
Market Risk7078
Technical Analysis5375
Fundamental Analysis6965
Risk Unsystematic7168

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 563 signals.

## References

1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
2. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
3. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
4. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
7. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CGO stock?
A: LON:CGO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:CGO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:CGO Stock.
Q: Is CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CONTANGO HOLDINGS PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CGO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CGO is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CGO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CGO is (n+6 month)