Modelling A.I. in Economics

PPL Options & Futures Prediction (Forecast)

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We evaluate Pembina Pipeline Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PPL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PPL stock.


Keywords: PPL, Pembina Pipeline Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Rating
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

PPL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Social media comments have in the past had an instantaneous effect on stock markets. This paper investigates the sentiments expressed on the social media platform Twitter and their pr edictive impact on the Stock Market. We consider Pembina Pipeline Corporation Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of PPL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PPL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PPL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PPL Pembina Pipeline Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PPL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Pembina Pipeline Corporation assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PPL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PPL stock.

Financial State Forecast for PPL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 7940
Market Risk5332
Technical Analysis4948
Fundamental Analysis7460
Risk Unsystematic4274

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 497 signals.

References

  1. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  2. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  4. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  5. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  7. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PPL stock?
A: PPL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is PPL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PPL Stock.
Q: Is Pembina Pipeline Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Pembina Pipeline Corporation is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PPL stock?
A: The consensus rating for PPL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PPL stock?
A: The prediction period for PPL is (n+16 weeks)

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