Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? KOSPI Index Stock Forecast (Forecast)

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We evaluate KOSPI Index prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KOSPI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index stock.


Keywords: KOSPI Index, KOSPI Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

KOSPI Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning addresses the question of how to build computers that improve automatically through experience. It is one of today's most rapidly growing technical fields, lying at the intersection of computer science and statistics, and at the core of artificial intelligence and data science. We consider KOSPI Index Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of KOSPI Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KOSPI Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KOSPI Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KOSPI Index KOSPI Index
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

KOSPI Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the KOSPI Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for KOSPI Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 7239
Market Risk8964
Technical Analysis6588
Fundamental Analysis6430
Risk Unsystematic4263

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 588 signals.

References

  1. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  2. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  3. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  4. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  5. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  7. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for KOSPI Index stock?
A: KOSPI Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is KOSPI Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KOSPI Index Stock.
Q: Is KOSPI Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for KOSPI Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KOSPI Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for KOSPI Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for KOSPI Index stock?
A: The prediction period for KOSPI Index is (n+1 year)

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