Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? (LNG Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate Cheniere prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LNG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LNG stock.


Keywords: LNG, Cheniere, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

LNG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell. We consider Cheniere Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of LNG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LNG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LNG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LNG Cheniere
Time series to forecast n: 21 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LNG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Cheniere assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LNG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LNG stock.

Financial State Forecast for LNG Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 5838
Market Risk3360
Technical Analysis4780
Fundamental Analysis8058
Risk Unsystematic8486

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 776 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  3. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  4. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  5. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  6. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LNG stock?
A: LNG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is LNG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LNG Stock.
Q: Is Cheniere stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cheniere is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LNG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LNG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LNG stock?
A: The prediction period for LNG is (n+1 year)

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