Should You Buy Now or Wait? LON:HUW Stock Forecast

This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the technical analysis approach, the regression machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed to predict the stock price trend at the end of a business day based on the historical price data. In contrast, in the fundamental analysis, the classification ML algorithms are applied to classify the public sentiment based on news and social media. We evaluate HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HUW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HUW stock.

Keywords: LON:HUW, HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LON:HUW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market is very volatile and non-stationary and generates huge volumes of data in every second. In this article, the existing machine learning algorithms are analyzed for stock market forecasting and also a new pattern-finding algorithm for forecasting stock trend is developed. Three approaches can be used to solve the problem: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and the machine learning. Experimental analysis done in this article shows that the machine learning could be useful for investors to make profitable decisions. We consider HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HUW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HUW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HUW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HUW HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC
Time series to forecast n: 17 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HUW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HUW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HUW stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HUW Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	B1
Operational Risk	84	58
Market Risk	69	39
Technical Analysis	56	89
Fundamental Analysis	68	59
Risk Unsystematic	66	34

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 780 signals.

References

1. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
2. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
3. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
4. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
6. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HUW stock?
A: LON:HUW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:HUW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HUW Stock.
Q: Is HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HELIOS UNDERWRITING PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HUW stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HUW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HUW stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HUW is (n+6 month)

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