Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the cornerstone of the modern financial theory and it states that it is impossible to predict the price of any stock using any trend, fundamental or technical analysis. Stock trading is one of the most important activities in the world of finance. Stock price prediction has been an age-old problem and many researchers from academia and business have tried to solve it using many techniques ranging from basic statistics to machine learning using relevant information such as news sentiment and historical prices. We evaluate Alstom prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ALO.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ALO.PA stock.
Keywords: ALO.PA, Alstom, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.
Key Points
- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
- How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
- Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
ALO.PA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology
Short - term price movements, contribute a considerable measure to the unpredictability of the securities exchanges. Accurately predicting the price fluctuations in stock market is a huge economical advantage. The aforementioned task is generally achieved by analyzing the company, this is called as fundamental analysis. Another method, which is undergoing a lot of research work recently, is to create a predictive algorithmic model using machine learning. To train machines to take trading decisions in such short - period of time, the latter method needs to be adopted. Deep Neural Networks, being the most exceptional innovation in Machine Learning, have been utilized to develop a short-term prediction model. We consider Alstom Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of ALO.PA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4
F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks)
n:Time series to forecast
p:Price signals of ALO.PA stock
j:Nash equilibria
k:Dominated move
a:Best response for target price
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ALO.PA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)
Sample Set: Neural NetworkStock/Index: ALO.PA Alstom
Time series to forecast n: 23 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ALO.PA stock.
X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)
Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)
Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%
Conclusions
Alstom assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ALO.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ALO.PA stock.
Financial State Forecast for ALO.PA Stock Options & Futures
| Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook* | B2 | Ba3 |
| Operational Risk | 60 | 40 |
| Market Risk | 57 | 75 |
| Technical Analysis | 36 | 90 |
| Fundamental Analysis | 68 | 34 |
| Risk Unsystematic | 46 | 81 |
Prediction Confidence Score
References
- Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
- Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
- B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
- Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
- Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
- Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the prediction methodology for ALO.PA stock?A: ALO.PA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is ALO.PA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ALO.PA Stock.
Q: Is Alstom stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alstom is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ALO.PA stock?
A: The consensus rating for ALO.PA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ALO.PA stock?
A: The prediction period for ALO.PA is (n+8 weeks)
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