Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (MRK.DE Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Prediction of stock market is a long-time attractive topic to researchers from different fields. In particular, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the movement of stock market using machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and reinforcement learning. In this project, we propose a new prediction algorithm that exploits the temporal correlation among global stock markets and various financial products to predict the next-day stock trend. We evaluate Merck prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MRK.DE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MRK.DE stock.


Keywords: MRK.DE, Merck, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

MRK.DE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Fuzzy rough theory can describe real-world situations in a mathematically effective and interpretable way, while evolutionary neural networks can be utilized to solve complex problems. Combining them with these complementary capabilities may lead to evolutionary fuzzy rough neural network with the interpretability and prediction capability. In this article, we propose modifications to the existing models of fuzzy rough neural network and then develop a powerful evolutionary framework for fuzzy rough neural networks by inheriting the merits of both the aforementioned systems. We consider Merck Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of MRK.DE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MRK.DE stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MRK.DE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MRK.DE Merck
Time series to forecast n: 07 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MRK.DE stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Merck assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MRK.DE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MRK.DE stock.

Financial State Forecast for MRK.DE Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 5934
Market Risk8248
Technical Analysis3783
Fundamental Analysis8265
Risk Unsystematic7688

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 789 signals.

References

  1. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  2. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  4. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  5. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  6. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  7. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MRK.DE stock?
A: MRK.DE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is MRK.DE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MRK.DE Stock.
Q: Is Merck stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Merck is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MRK.DE stock?
A: The consensus rating for MRK.DE is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MRK.DE stock?
A: The prediction period for MRK.DE is (n+6 month)

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