Modelling A.I. in Economics

Buy, sell or hold: LON:AAIF Stock Forecast (Forecast)

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We evaluate ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AAIF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAIF stock.


Keywords: LON:AAIF, ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?

LON:AAIF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The stock market has been an attractive field for a large number of organizers and investors to derive useful predictions. Fundamental knowledge of stock market can be utilised with technical indicators to investigate different perspectives of the financial market; also, the influence of various events, financial news, and/or opinions on investors' decisions and hence, market trends have been observed. Such information can be exploited to make reliable predictions and achieve higher profitability. Computational intelligence has emerged with various deep neural network (DNN) techniques to address complex stock market problems. We consider ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AAIF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AAIF stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AAIF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AAIF ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 10 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAIF stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED

  1. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
  2. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  3. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
  4. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:AAIF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAIF stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:AAIF ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba1
Operational Risk 5277
Market Risk9068
Technical Analysis4679
Fundamental Analysis8359
Risk Unsystematic3264

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 639 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  2. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  3. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  4. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  5. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  7. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AAIF stock?
A: LON:AAIF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:AAIF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AAIF Stock.
Q: Is ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ABRDN ASIAN INCOME FUND LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AAIF stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AAIF is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AAIF stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AAIF is (n+16 weeks)

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