Can we predict stock market using machine learning? (LON:TPFG Stock Forecast)

PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) Research Report

Summary

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We evaluate PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TPFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TPFG stock.

Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. Is Target price a good indicator?
3. Short/Long Term Stocks

LON:TPFG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TPFG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TPFG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:TPFG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TPFG PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE)
Time series to forecast n: 18 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TPFG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE)

1. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
2. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
3. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
4. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TPFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TPFG stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:TPFG PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	76	32
Market Risk	37	39
Technical Analysis	79	87
Fundamental Analysis	67	89
Risk Unsystematic	47	48

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 706 signals.

References

1. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
2. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
3. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
4. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
5. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
6. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
7. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TPFG stock?
A: LON:TPFG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:TPFG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TPFG Stock.
Q: Is PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PROPERTY FRANCHISE GROUP PLC (THE) is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TPFG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TPFG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TPFG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TPFG is (n+1 year)

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