How do you decide buy or sell a stock? (CPB Stock Forecast)

Campbell's Research Report

Summary

Stocks are possibly the most popular financial instrument invented for building wealth and are the centerpiece of any investment portfolio. The advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. From last few decades, there seen explosive increase in the average person's interest for stock market. In a financially explosive market, as the stock market, it is important to have a very accurate prediction of a future trend. Because of the financial crisis and recording profits, it is compulsory to have a secure prediction of the values of the stocks. Predicting a non-linear signal requires progressive algorithms of machine learning with help of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We evaluate Campbell's prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CPB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPB stock.

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. Investment Risk

CPB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Campbell's Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of CPB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CPB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CPB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CPB Campbell's
Time series to forecast n: 20 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPB stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Campbell's

  1. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
  2. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  3. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Campbell's assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CPB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPB stock.

Financial State Forecast for CPB Campbell's Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 6865
Market Risk5451
Technical Analysis7759
Fundamental Analysis6331
Risk Unsystematic6753

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 570 signals.

References

  1. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  2. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  3. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  4. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  6. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  7. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CPB stock?
A: CPB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is CPB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CPB Stock.
Q: Is Campbell's stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Campbell's is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CPB stock?
A: The consensus rating for CPB is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CPB stock?
A: The prediction period for CPB is (n+3 month)

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