How do you know when a stock will go up or down? (LON:DGN Stock Forecast)

ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC Research Report

Summary

In the finance world stock trading is one of the most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock predictions. We evaluate ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DGN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DGN stock.

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. Market Outlook
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

LON:DGN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DGN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DGN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:DGN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DGN ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 18 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DGN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC

  1. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  2. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  3. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  4. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DGN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DGN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:DGN ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Baa2
Operational Risk 4577
Market Risk3090
Technical Analysis4587
Fundamental Analysis9082
Risk Unsystematic3362

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 515 signals.

References

  1. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  2. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  3. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  4. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  5. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  7. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DGN stock?
A: LON:DGN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:DGN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DGN Stock.
Q: Is ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DGN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DGN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DGN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DGN is (n+16 weeks)

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