Modelling A.I. in Economics

Intuitive Surgical Stock Forecast & Analysis (Forecast)

Data mining and machine learning approaches can be incorporated into business intelligence (BI) systems to help users for decision support in many real-life applications. Here, in this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for BI applications. Specifically, we apply structural support vector machines (SSVMs) to perform classification on complex inputs such as the nodes of a graph structure. We evaluate Intuitive Surgical prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ISRG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ISRG stock.

Key Points

  1. Game Theory
  2. Market Outlook
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

ISRG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of stock market is a long-time attractive topic to researchers from different fields. In particular, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the movement of stock market using machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and reinforcement learning. In this project, we propose a new prediction algorithm that exploits the temporal correlation among global stock markets and various financial products to predict the next-day stock trend. We consider Intuitive Surgical Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of ISRG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ISRG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ISRG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ISRG Intuitive Surgical
Time series to forecast n: 17 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ISRG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Intuitive Surgical

  1. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  2. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.
  3. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  4. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Intuitive Surgical assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ISRG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ISRG stock.

Financial State Forecast for ISRG Intuitive Surgical Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 4177
Market Risk6067
Technical Analysis5834
Fundamental Analysis4859
Risk Unsystematic5288

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 602 signals.

References

  1. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  2. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  3. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  5. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  6. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  7. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ISRG stock?
A: ISRG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is ISRG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ISRG Stock.
Q: Is Intuitive Surgical stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Intuitive Surgical is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ISRG stock?
A: The consensus rating for ISRG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ISRG stock?
A: The prediction period for ISRG is (n+16 weeks)

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