Is LON:CBP Stock Expected to Go Up? (Stock Forecast)

Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users' moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach. We evaluate CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CBP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CBP stock.

Keywords: LON:CBP, CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
2. What is a prediction confidence?
3. Reaction Function

LON:CBP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We consider CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CBP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CBP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:CBP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CBP CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 03 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CBP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC

1. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
2. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
3. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
4. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CBP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CBP stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:CBP CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba2
Operational Risk	77	33
Market Risk	52	78
Technical Analysis	81	75
Fundamental Analysis	49	75
Risk Unsystematic	68	85

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 550 signals.

References

1. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
3. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
4. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
5. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CBP stock?
A: LON:CBP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:CBP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CBP Stock.
Q: Is CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CURTIS BANKS GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CBP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CBP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CBP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CBP is (n+1 year)

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