Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is LON:LMS a Buy?

Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors' behavior. We evaluate LMS CAPITAL PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LMS stock.


Keywords: LON:LMS, LMS CAPITAL PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. Trading Signals
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

LON:LMS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine learning is a branch of computer science that has the potential to transform epidemiologic sciences. Amid a growing focus on "Big Data," it offers epidemiologists new tools to tackle problems for which classical methods are not well-suited. In order to critically evaluate the value of integrating machine learning algorithms and existing methods, however, it is essential to address language and technical barriers between the two fields that can make it difficult for epidemiologists to read and assess machine learning studies. We consider LMS CAPITAL PLC Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LMS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LMS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LMS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LMS LMS CAPITAL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 02 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LMS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for LMS CAPITAL PLC

  1. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  2. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).
  3. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
  4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

LMS CAPITAL PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LMS stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:LMS LMS CAPITAL PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Operational Risk 6780
Market Risk7576
Technical Analysis6269
Fundamental Analysis5762
Risk Unsystematic3975

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 801 signals.

References

  1. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
  2. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  4. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  6. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  7. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LMS stock?
A: LON:LMS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:LMS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LMS Stock.
Q: Is LMS CAPITAL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LMS CAPITAL PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LMS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LMS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LMS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LMS is (n+3 month)

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