Modelling A.I. in Economics

Machine Learning stock prediction: SASR Stock Prediction

SANDY SPRING BANCORP Research Report

Summary

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We evaluate SANDY SPRING BANCORP prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SASR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SASR stock.

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

SASR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SANDY SPRING BANCORP Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SASR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SASR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SASR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SASR SANDY SPRING BANCORP
Time series to forecast n: 18 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SASR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for SANDY SPRING BANCORP

  1. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
  2. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  3. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  4. For the purposes of applying the requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a), credit risk is different from asset-specific performance risk. Asset-specific performance risk is not related to the risk that an entity will fail to discharge a particular obligation but instead it is related to the risk that a single asset or a group of assets will perform poorly (or not at all).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

SANDY SPRING BANCORP assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SASR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SASR stock.

Financial State Forecast for SASR SANDY SPRING BANCORP Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 5744
Market Risk7767
Technical Analysis3781
Fundamental Analysis3840
Risk Unsystematic3367

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 789 signals.

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  3. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  4. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  6. K. Tuyls and G. Weiss. Multiagent learning: Basics, challenges, and prospects. AI Magazine, 33(3): 41–52, 2012
  7. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SASR stock?
A: SASR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is SASR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SASR Stock.
Q: Is SANDY SPRING BANCORP stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SANDY SPRING BANCORP is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SASR stock?
A: The consensus rating for SASR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SASR stock?
A: The prediction period for SASR is (n+4 weeks)



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