NWN Stock Forecast

Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock Research Report

Summary

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We evaluate Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NWN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NWN stock.

Key Points

1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

NWN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NWN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NWN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NWN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 27 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NWN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock

1. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
2. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
3. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
4. For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NWN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NWN stock.

Financial State Forecast for NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Operational Risk	33	61
Market Risk	80	61
Technical Analysis	69	39
Fundamental Analysis	87	75
Risk Unsystematic	47	80

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 678 signals.

References

1. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
3. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
4. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
5. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
7. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NWN stock?
A: NWN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is NWN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NWN Stock.
Q: Is Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Northwest Natural Holding Company Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NWN stock?
A: The consensus rating for NWN is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NWN stock?
A: The prediction period for NWN is (n+3 month)

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