Should I Buy Stocks Now or Wait Amid Such Uncertainty? (FICO Stock Prediction)

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We evaluate FICO prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FICO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FICO stock.

Keywords: FICO, FICO, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Stock Rating
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Why do we need predictive models?

FICO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock market prices is crucial subject at the present economy. Hence, the tendency of researchers towards new opportunities to predict the stock market has been increased. Researchers have found that, historical stock data and Search Engine Queries, social mood from user generated content in sources like Twitter, Web News has a predictive relationship to the future stock prices. Lack of information such as social mood was there in past studies and in this research, we discuss an effective method to analyze multiple information sources to fill the information gap and predict an accurate future value. We consider FICO Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of FICO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FICO stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FICO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FICO FICO
Time series to forecast n: 02 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FICO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for FICO

1. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
2. For example, an entity hedges an exposure to Foreign Currency A using a currency derivative that references Foreign Currency B and Foreign Currencies A and B are pegged (ie their exchange rate is maintained within a band or at an exchange rate set by a central bank or other authority). If the exchange rate between Foreign Currency A and Foreign Currency B were changed (ie a new band or rate was set), rebalancing the hedging relationship to reflect the new exchange rate would ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet the hedge effectiveness requirement for the hedge ratio in the new circumstances. In contrast, if there was a default on the currency derivative, changing the hedge ratio could not ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet that hedge effectiveness requirement. Hence, rebalancing does not facilitate the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item changes in a way that cannot be compensated for by adjusting the hedge ratio
3. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
4. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

FICO assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FICO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FICO stock.

Financial State Forecast for FICO FICO Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba2
Operational Risk	42	45
Market Risk	33	79
Technical Analysis	57	81
Fundamental Analysis	58	89
Risk Unsystematic	48	51

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 709 signals.

References

1. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
2. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
3. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
4. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
6. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
7. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FICO stock?
A: FICO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is FICO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FICO Stock.
Q: Is FICO stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FICO is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FICO stock?
A: The consensus rating for FICO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FICO stock?
A: The prediction period for FICO is (n+16 weeks)

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