Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? (AM Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Neural networks (NNs), as artificial intelligence (AI) methods, have become very important in making stock market predictions. Much research on the applications of NNs for solving business problems have proven their advantages over statistical and other methods that do not include AI, although there is no optimal methodology for a certain problem. We evaluate Antero Midstream prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AM stock.


Keywords: AM, Antero Midstream, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

AM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We consider Antero Midstream Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of AM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AM Antero Midstream
Time series to forecast n: 03 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Antero Midstream

  1. The assessment of whether lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised is based on significant increases in the likelihood or risk of a default occurring since initial recognition (irrespective of whether a financial instrument has been repriced to reflect an increase in credit risk) instead of on evidence of a financial asset being credit-impaired at the reporting date or an actual default occurring. Generally, there will be a significant increase in credit risk before a financial asset becomes credit-impaired or an actual default occurs.
  2. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
  3. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
  4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Antero Midstream assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AM stock.

Financial State Forecast for AM Antero Midstream Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 7778
Market Risk5265
Technical Analysis3439
Fundamental Analysis8968
Risk Unsystematic6563

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 567 signals.

References

  1. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  3. T. Morimura, M. Sugiyama, M. Kashima, H. Hachiya, and T. Tanaka. Nonparametric return distribution ap- proximation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 799–806, 2010
  4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  5. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  6. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AM stock?
A: AM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is AM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AM Stock.
Q: Is Antero Midstream stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Antero Midstream is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AM stock?
A: The consensus rating for AM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AM stock?
A: The prediction period for AM is (n+4 weeks)

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