Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy Now or Wait? LON:JDW Stock Forecast (Forecast)

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We evaluate WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:JDW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:JDW stock.


Keywords: LON:JDW, WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. Market Risk

LON:JDW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Prediction of the Stock Market is a challenging task in predicting the stock prices in the future. Due to the fluctuating nature of the stock, the stock market is too difficult to predict. Stock prices are constantly changing every day. Estimating of the stock market has a high demand for stock customers. Applying all extracted rules at any time is a major challenge to estimate the future stock price with high accuracy. The latest prediction techniques adopted for the stock market such as Artificial Neural Network, Neuro-Fuzzy System, Time Series Linear Models (TSLM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). We consider WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Hypothesis Testing where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:JDW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:JDW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:JDW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:JDW WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC
Time series to forecast n: 10 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:JDW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC

  1. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  2. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  3. An entity shall assess separately whether each subgroup meets the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1 to be an eligible hedged item. If any subgroup fails to meet the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1, the entity shall discontinue hedge accounting prospectively for the hedging relationship in its entirety. An entity also shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.5.8 and 6.5.11 to account for ineffectiveness related to the hedging relationship in its entirety.
  4. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:JDW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:JDW stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:JDW WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2B1
Operational Risk 3066
Market Risk3262
Technical Analysis7570
Fundamental Analysis3352
Risk Unsystematic3254

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 561 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  2. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  3. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  4. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  7. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:JDW stock?
A: LON:JDW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:JDW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:JDW Stock.
Q: Is WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WETHERSPOON ( J.D.) PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:JDW stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:JDW is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:JDW stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:JDW is (n+8 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.