Should You Buy NSE GRASIM Right Now? (Stock Forecast)

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. We evaluate Grasim Industries Limited prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE GRASIM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE GRASIM stock.


Keywords: NSE GRASIM, Grasim Industries Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

NSE GRASIM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We consider Grasim Industries Limited Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE GRASIM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE GRASIM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE GRASIM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE GRASIM Grasim Industries Limited
Time series to forecast n: 13 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE GRASIM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Grasim Industries Limited

  1. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
  2. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang
  3. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  4. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Grasim Industries Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE GRASIM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE GRASIM stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE GRASIM Grasim Industries Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 6062
Market Risk7244
Technical Analysis5244
Fundamental Analysis8554
Risk Unsystematic3959

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 652 signals.

References

  1. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  3. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  5. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  6. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE GRASIM stock?
A: NSE GRASIM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is NSE GRASIM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE GRASIM Stock.
Q: Is Grasim Industries Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Grasim Industries Limited is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE GRASIM stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE GRASIM is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE GRASIM stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE GRASIM is (n+3 month)

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