Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors' behavior.** We evaluate HCA Healthcare prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HCA stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HCA stock.**

**HCA, HCA Healthcare, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
- Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
- What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

## HCA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system. We consider HCA Healthcare Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of HCA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(ElasticNet Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HCA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HCA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**HCA HCA Healthcare

**Time series to forecast n: 07 Nov 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HCA stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HCA Healthcare

- At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
- There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
- When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
- The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HCA Healthcare assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with ElasticNet Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HCA stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HCA stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for HCA HCA Healthcare Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B3 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 36 | 54 |

Market Risk | 48 | 71 |

Technical Analysis | 44 | 33 |

Fundamental Analysis | 48 | 85 |

Risk Unsystematic | 72 | 75 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
- C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
- Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HCA stock?A: HCA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and ElasticNet Regression

Q: Is HCA stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HCA Stock.

Q: Is HCA Healthcare stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for HCA Healthcare is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of HCA stock?

A: The consensus rating for HCA is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for HCA stock?

A: The prediction period for HCA is (n+8 weeks)