Modelling A.I. in Economics

ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. (Umer, M., Awais, M. and Muzammul, M., 2019. Stock market prediction using machine learning (ML) algorithms. ADCAIJ: Advances in Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence Journal, 8(4), pp.97-116.) We evaluate ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ACDC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ACDC stock.

AC Investment Research

Key Points

  1. Trading Signals
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. Decision Making

ACDC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ACDC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ACDC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ACDC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ACDC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock

  1. Adjusting the hedge ratio by increasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the previously designated volume also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument also include the changes in the value of the additional volume of the hedging instrument. The changes are measured starting from, and by reference to, the date of rebalancing instead of the date on which the hedging relationship was designated. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and added a volume of 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedging instrument after rebalancing would comprise a total derivative volume of 110 tonnes. The change in the fair value of the hedging instrument is the total change in the fair value of the derivatives that make up the total volume of 110 tonnes. These derivatives could (and probably would) have different critical terms, such as their forward rates, because they were entered into at different points in time (including the possibility of designating derivatives into hedging relationships after their initial recognition).
  2. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
  4. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ACDC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ACDC stock.

Financial State Forecast for ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 3772
Market Risk3880
Technical Analysis7780
Fundamental Analysis3842
Risk Unsystematic4234

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 636 signals.

References

  1. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Trading Signals (WTS Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  5. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  6. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  7. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ACDC stock?
A: ACDC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is ACDC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ACDC Stock.
Q: Is ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ProFrac Holding Corp. Class A Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ACDC stock?
A: The consensus rating for ACDC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for ACDC stock?
A: The prediction period for ACDC is (n+4 weeks)

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