AEL^B American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B

Outlook: American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the use of machine learning to help aid in the accurate predictions of financial markets. Despite the exciting advances in this cross-section of finance and AI, many of the current approaches are limited to using technical analysis to capture historical trends of each stock price and thus limited to certain experimental setups to obtain good prediction results. On the other hand, professional investors additionally use their rich knowledge of inter-market and inter-company relations to map the connectivity of companies and events, and use this map to make better market predictions. For instance, they would predict the movement of a certain company's stock price based not only on its former stock price trends but also on the performance of its suppliers or customers, the overall industry, macroeconomic factors and trade policies. This paper investigates the effectiveness of work at the intersection of market predictions and graph neural networks, which hold the potential to mimic the ways in which investors make decisions by incorporating company knowledge graphs directly into the predictive model.(Mehtab, S., Sen, J. and Dutta, A., 2021. Stock price prediction using machine learning and LSTM-based deep learning models. In Symposium on Machine Learning and Metaheuristics Algorithms, and Applications (pp. 88-106). Springer, Singapore.) We evaluate American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEL^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. How do you pick a stock?
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

AEL^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AEL^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEL^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEL^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEL^B American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B

1. For the purposes of applying the requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a), credit risk is different from asset-specific performance risk. Asset-specific performance risk is not related to the risk that an entity will fail to discharge a particular obligation but instead it is related to the risk that a single asset or a group of assets will perform poorly (or not at all).
2. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary
3. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
4. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AEL^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for AEL^B American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B2
Operational Risk	76	32
Market Risk	85	56
Technical Analysis	75	60
Fundamental Analysis	81	80
Risk Unsystematic	55	45

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 864 signals.

References

1. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
2. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
3. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
4. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
5. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
6. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEL^B stock?
A: AEL^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is AEL^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AEL^B Stock.
Q: Is American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B is Buy and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEL^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEL^B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEL^B stock?
A: The prediction period for AEL^B is (n+6 month)