AC Investment Research

ALC ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED Research Report

Outlook: ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. (Singh, R. and Srivastava, S., 2017. Stock prediction using deep learning. Multimedia Tools and Applications, 76(18), pp.18569-18584.) We evaluate ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ALC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. How do you pick a stock?

ALC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ALC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ALC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ALC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ALC ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

  1. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.
  2. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.
  3. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ALC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

ALC ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3C
Balance SheetB2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 853 signals.

References

  1. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  3. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  5. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  6. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ALC stock?
A: ALC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ALC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes ALC Stock.
Q: Is ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ALC stock?
A: The consensus rating for ALC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for ALC stock?
A: The prediction period for ALC is (n+6 month)

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