AC Investment Research

ARDX Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 26 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using external indicators, such as commodity prices and currency exchange rates, in predicting movements. The performance of each technique is evaluated using different domain specific metrics. A comprehensive evaluation procedure is described, involving the use of trading simulations to assess the practical value of predictive models, and comparison with simple benchmarks that respond to underlying market growth.(Obthong, M., Tantisantiwong, N., Jeamwatthanachai, W. and Wills, G., 2020. A survey on machine learning for stock price prediction: algorithms and techniques.) We evaluate Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ARDX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Probability Distribution
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

ARDX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ARDX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ARDX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ARDX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ARDX Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 26 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  2. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  3. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ARDX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

ARDX Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 457 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  2. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  3. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  4. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  5. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  6. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ARDX stock?
A: ARDX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is ARDX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ARDX Stock.
Q: Is Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ardelyx Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ARDX stock?
A: The consensus rating for ARDX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ARDX stock?
A: The prediction period for ARDX is (n+6 month)

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