AC Investment Research

ASO ASTON MINERALS LIMITED Research Report

Outlook: ASTON MINERALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 28 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

It has never been easy to invest in a set of assets, the abnormally of financial market does not allow simple models to predict future asset values with higher accuracy. Machine learning, which consist of making computers perform tasks that normally requiring human intelligence is currently the dominant trend in scientific research. This article aims to build a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and especially Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) to predict future stock market values.(Sable, R., Goel, S. and Chatterjee, P., 2019, December. Empirical study on stock market prediction using machine learning. In 2019 International conference on advances in computing, communication and control (ICAC3) (pp. 1-5). IEEE.) We evaluate ASTON MINERALS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. Is now good time to invest?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

ASO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ASTON MINERALS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ASO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASO ASTON MINERALS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 28 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ASTON MINERALS LIMITED

  1. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
  2. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
  3. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ASTON MINERALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

ASO ASTON MINERALS LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBa3
Balance SheetB2B2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Caa2
Cash FlowCB1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 456 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
  3. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  4. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  5. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  7. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASO stock?
A: ASO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is ASO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes ASO Stock.
Q: Is ASTON MINERALS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ASTON MINERALS LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASO stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASO is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASO stock?
A: The prediction period for ASO is (n+3 month)

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