Modelling A.I. in Economics

ASPU Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA.(Shen, S., Jiang, H. and Zhang, T., 2012. Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, pp.1-5.) We evaluate Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASPU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  3. Stock Rating

ASPU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASPU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASPU stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ASPU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASPU Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock

  1. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
  2. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
  3. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
  4. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ASPU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for ASPU Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B2
Operational Risk 8749
Market Risk8086
Technical Analysis5945
Fundamental Analysis8132
Risk Unsystematic3140

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 557 signals.

References

  1. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  2. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
  3. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  5. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  6. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ASPU stock?
A: ASPU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is ASPU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ASPU Stock.
Q: Is Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aspen Group Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASPU stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASPU is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ASPU stock?
A: The prediction period for ASPU is (n+6 month)

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