ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

Outlook: Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. (Vachhani, H., Obiadat, M.S., Thakkar, A., Shah, V., Sojitra, R., Bhatia, J. and Tanwar, S., 2020. Machine learning based stock market analysis: A short survey. In International Conference on Innovative Data Communication Technologies and Application (pp. 12-26). Springer, Cham.) We evaluate Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ATAT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Reaction Function
2. What is prediction model?
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

ATAT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ATAT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ATAT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ATAT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares

1. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
2. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
3. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
4. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ATAT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba3
Operational Risk	38	46
Market Risk	73	62
Technical Analysis	51	49
Fundamental Analysis	45	72
Risk Unsystematic	33	87

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

1. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
2. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
3. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
4. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
5. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
6. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
7. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ATAT stock?
A: ATAT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is ATAT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes ATAT Stock.
Q: Is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares is BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ATAT stock?
A: The consensus rating for ATAT is BuyWait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for ATAT stock?
A: The prediction period for ATAT is (n+3 month)

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