Outlook: C29 METALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods(Ravikumar, S. and Saraf, P., 2020, June. Prediction of stock prices using machine learning (regression, classification) Algorithms. In 2020 International Conference for Emerging Technology (INCET) (pp. 1-5). IEEE.) We evaluate C29 METALS LIMITED prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the C29 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. Is Target price a good indicator?
2. Reaction Function
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## C29 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider C29 METALS LIMITED Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of C29 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of C29 stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## C29 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: C29 C29 METALS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for C29 METALS LIMITED

1. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
2. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
3. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
4. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

C29 METALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the C29 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### Financial State Forecast for C29 C29 METALS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba3
Operational Risk 8885
Market Risk8769
Technical Analysis3975
Fundamental Analysis4643
Risk Unsystematic8142

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 516 signals.

## References

1. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
2. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
3. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
4. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
7. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for C29 stock?
A: C29 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is C29 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy C29 Stock.
Q: Is C29 METALS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for C29 METALS LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of C29 stock?
A: The consensus rating for C29 is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for C29 stock?
A: The prediction period for C29 is (n+3 month)