AC Investment Research

DUI DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED Research Report

Outlook: DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators.(Sureshkumar, K.K. and Elango, N.M., 2012. Performance analysis of stock price prediction using artificial neural network. Global journal of computer science and Technology.) We evaluate DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DUI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. Game Theory
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

DUI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of DUI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DUI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DUI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DUI DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED

  1. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
  3. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
  4. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DUI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for DUI DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 6538
Market Risk6169
Technical Analysis3873
Fundamental Analysis6589
Risk Unsystematic5735

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 751 signals.

References

  1. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  2. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  3. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  4. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  5. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  6. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  7. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DUI stock?
A: DUI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is DUI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DUI Stock.
Q: Is DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DIVERSIFIED UNITED INVESTMENT LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DUI stock?
A: The consensus rating for DUI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for DUI stock?
A: The prediction period for DUI is (n+6 month)

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