Modelling A.I. in Economics

ETD Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Several intelligent data mining approaches, including neural networks, have been widely employed by academics during the last decade. In today's rapidly evolving economy, stock market data prediction and analysis play a significant role. Several non-linear models like neural network, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) as well as linear models like Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Moving Average (MA) and Auto Regressive (AR) may be used for stock forecasting.(Singh, R. and Srivastava, S., 2017. Stock prediction using deep learning. Multimedia Tools and Applications, 76(18), pp.18569-18584.) We evaluate Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ETD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. Is now good time to invest?
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

ETD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ETD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ETD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ETD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ETD Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock

  1. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
  2. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  3. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)
  4. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ETD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for ETD Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B1
Operational Risk 9062
Market Risk8253
Technical Analysis7239
Fundamental Analysis8761
Risk Unsystematic4777

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 521 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  3. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  4. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  5. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  6. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  7. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ETD stock?
A: ETD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is ETD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ETD Stock.
Q: Is Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ETD stock?
A: The consensus rating for ETD is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ETD stock?
A: The prediction period for ETD is (n+4 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.