## Abstract

Impact of many factors on the stock prices makes the stock prediction a difficult and highly complicated task. In this paper, machine learning techniques have been applied for the stock price prediction in order to overcome such difficulties. In the implemented work, five models have been developed and their performances are compared in predicting the stock market trends.(Chen, K., Zhou, Y. and Dai, F., 2015, October. A LSTM-based method for stock returns prediction: A case study of China stock market. In 2015 IEEE international conference on big data (big data) (pp. 2823-2824). IEEE.)** We evaluate HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HOR stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOR stock.**

## Key Points

- Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
- Market Outlook
- Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

## HOR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HOR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HOR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HOR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**HOR HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOR stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED

- The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
- The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
- Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
- An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HOR stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOR stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for HOR HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 53 | 44 |

Market Risk | 59 | 37 |

Technical Analysis | 71 | 77 |

Fundamental Analysis | 74 | 38 |

Risk Unsystematic | 35 | 61 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
- Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HOR stock?A: HOR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test

Q: Is HOR stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HOR Stock.

Q: Is HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for HORSESHOE METALS LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of HOR stock?

A: The consensus rating for HOR is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for HOR stock?

A: The prediction period for HOR is (n+1 year)