## Abstract

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions.(Madeeh, O.D. and Abdullah, H.S., 2021, February. An efficient prediction model based on machine learning techniques for prediction of the stock market. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 1804, No. 1, p. 012008). IOP Publishing.)** We evaluate KMD BRANDS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the KMD stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMD stock.**

## Key Points

- Can stock prices be predicted?
- Market Outlook
- What are the most successful trading algorithms?

## KMD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider KMD BRANDS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of KMD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Paired T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KMD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## KMD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**KMD KMD BRANDS LIMITED

**Time series to forecast n: 04 Dec 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMD stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for KMD BRANDS LIMITED

- An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
- The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
- Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
- When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

KMD BRANDS LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the KMD stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMD stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for KMD KMD BRANDS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 75 | 44 |

Market Risk | 54 | 52 |

Technical Analysis | 74 | 56 |

Fundamental Analysis | 63 | 67 |

Risk Unsystematic | 33 | 60 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
- Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
- Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
- S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
- Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
- Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
- Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for KMD stock?A: KMD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Paired T-Test

Q: Is KMD stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KMD Stock.

Q: Is KMD BRANDS LIMITED stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for KMD BRANDS LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of KMD stock?

A: The consensus rating for KMD is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for KMD stock?

A: The prediction period for KMD is (n+8 weeks)