AC Investment Research

LON:GAW GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC Research Report

Outlook: GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks' historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks' historical price and technical indicators.(Chaigusin, S., Chirathamjaree, C. and Clayden, J., 2008, September. Soft computing in the forecasting of the stock exchange of Thailand (SET). In 2008 4th IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology (pp. 1277-1281). IEEE.) We evaluate GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GAW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

LON:GAW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GAW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GAW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GAW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GAW GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC

  1. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  2. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  3. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  4. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GAW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:GAW GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2C
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 598 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  2. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  4. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  5. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  7. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GAW stock?
A: LON:GAW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is LON:GAW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:GAW Stock.
Q: Is GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GAMES WORKSHOP GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GAW stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GAW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GAW stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GAW is (n+4 weeks)

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