AC Investment Research

LON:JAM JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Research Report

Outlook: JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 28 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Stock prediction with data mining techniques is one of the most important issues in finance being investigated by researchers across the globe. Data mining techniques can be used extensively in the financial markets to help investors make qualitative decision. One of the techniques is artificial neural network (ANN). However, in the application of ANN for predicting the financial market the use of technical analysis variables for stock prediction is predominant. In this paper, we present a hybridized approach which combines the use of the variables of technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators for prediction of future price of stock in order to improve on the existing approaches. (Sureshkumar, K.K. and Elango, N.M., 2012. Performance analysis of stock price prediction using artificial neural network. Global journal of computer science and Technology.) We evaluate JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:JAM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Nash Equilibria

LON:JAM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:JAM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:JAM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:JAM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:JAM JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 28 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

  1. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.
  2. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  3. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  4. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:JAM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:JAM JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBa1
Balance SheetB3B1
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa1B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 582 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  2. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  3. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  4. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  5. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  7. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:JAM stock?
A: LON:JAM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:JAM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:JAM Stock.
Q: Is JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JPMORGAN AMERICAN INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:JAM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:JAM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:JAM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:JAM is (n+1 year)

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