Outlook: NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

## Abstract

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements.(Kompella, S. and Chakravarthy Chilukuri, K.C.C., 2020. Stock market prediction using machine learning methods. International Journal of Computer Engineering and Technology, 10(3), p.2019.) We evaluate NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NSI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Decision Making
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## LON:NSI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:NSI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:NSI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:NSI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:NSI NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

1. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).
2. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
3. Sales that occur for other reasons, such as sales made to manage credit concentration risk (without an increase in the assets' credit risk), may also be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows. In particular, such sales may be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if those sales are infrequent (even if significant in value) or insignificant in value both individually and in aggregate (even if frequent). If more than an infrequent number of such sales are made out of a portfolio and those sales are more than insignificant in value (either individually or in aggregate), the entity needs to assess whether and how such sales are consistent with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows. Whether a third party imposes the requirement to sell the financial assets, or that activity is at the entity's discretion, is not relevant to this assessment. An increase in the frequency or value of sales in a particular period is not necessarily inconsistent with an objective to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, if an entity can explain the reasons for those sales and demonstrate why those sales do not reflect a change in the entity's business model. In addition, sales may be consistent with the objective of holding financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if the sales are made close to the maturity of the financial assets and the proceeds from the sales approximate the collection of the remaining contractual cash flows.
4. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NSI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### Financial State Forecast for LON:NSI NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Operational Risk 8772
Market Risk6035
Technical Analysis3534
Fundamental Analysis7535
Risk Unsystematic4538

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 570 signals.

## References

1. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
2. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
4. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
5. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
6. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
7. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:NSI stock?
A: LON:NSI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:NSI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NSI Stock.
Q: Is NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NEW STAR INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:NSI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:NSI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:NSI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:NSI is (n+6 month)