Outlook: Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

## Abstract

Machine Learning refers to a concept in which a machine has been programmed to learn specific patterns from historical data using powerful algorithms and make predictions in future based on the patterns it learnt. Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the term proposed in 1959 by Arthur Samuel who defined it as the ability of computers or machines to learn new rules and concepts from data without being explicitly programmed.(Güreşen, E. and Kayakutlu, G., 2008, October. Forecasting stock exchange movements using artificial neural network models and hybrid models. In International Conference on Intelligent Information Processing (pp. 129-137). Springer, Boston, MA.) We evaluate Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## MTA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of MTA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MTA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## MTA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MTA Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares

1. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.
2. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
3. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
4. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### Financial State Forecast for MTA Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 7860
Market Risk4431
Technical Analysis4946
Fundamental Analysis5672
Risk Unsystematic6463

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 582 signals.

## References

1. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
2. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
3. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
4. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
5. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
6. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
7. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MTA stock?
A: MTA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is MTA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MTA Stock.
Q: Is Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. Common Shares is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MTA stock?
A: The consensus rating for MTA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MTA stock?
A: The prediction period for MTA is (n+16 weeks)