Modelling A.I. in Economics

NOG Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction.(Brownstone, D., 1996. Using percentage accuracy to measure neural network predictions in stock market movements. Neurocomputing, 10(3), pp.237-250.) We evaluate Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. Stock Rating
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

NOG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NOG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NOG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NOG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NOG Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock

  1. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
  2. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  3. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.
  4. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for NOG Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 5850
Market Risk6584
Technical Analysis4053
Fundamental Analysis8361
Risk Unsystematic6044

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 505 signals.

References

  1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you know when a stock will go up or down?(STJ Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  2. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  3. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  4. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold FTNT Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NOG stock?
A: NOG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is NOG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NOG Stock.
Q: Is Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NOG stock?
A: The consensus rating for NOG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NOG stock?
A: The prediction period for NOG is (n+3 month)

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