AC Investment Research

NS^C Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units Research Report

Outlook: Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 26 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

One decision in Stock Market can make huge impact on an investor's life. The stock market is a complex system and often covered in mystery, it is therefore, very difficult to analyze all the impacting factors before making a decision. In this research, we have tried to design a stock market prediction model which is based on different factors. (Bi, Q., Goodman, K.E., Kaminsky, J. and Lessler, J., 2019. What is machine learning? A primer for the epidemiologist. American journal of epidemiology, 188(12), pp.2222-2239.) We evaluate Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NS^C stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Probability Distribution
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. What is prediction model?

NS^C Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NS^C stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NS^C stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NS^C Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NS^C Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units
Time series to forecast n: 26 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units

  1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  3. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
  4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NS^C stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

NS^C Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 510 signals.

References

  1. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
  2. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  3. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  4. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  5. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  6. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  7. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NS^C stock?
A: NS^C stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is NS^C stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NS^C Stock.
Q: Is Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nustar Energy L.P. 9.00% Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NS^C stock?
A: The consensus rating for NS^C is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NS^C stock?
A: The prediction period for NS^C is (n+3 month)

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