Modelling A.I. in Economics

OCC Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock

Outlook: Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently.(Gao, P., Zhang, R. and Yang, X., 2020. The application of stock index price prediction with neural network. Mathematical and Computational Applications, 25(3), p.53.) We evaluate Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OCC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. Trading Interaction
  3. Can machine learning predict?

OCC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of OCC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OCC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OCC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OCC Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock

  1. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
  2. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
  3. When an entity first applies this Standard, it may choose as its accounting policy to continue to apply the hedge accounting requirements of IAS 39 instead of the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard. An entity shall apply that policy to all of its hedging relationships. An entity that chooses that policy shall also apply IFRIC 16 Hedges of a Net Investment in a Foreign Operation without the amendments that conform that Interpretation to the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OCC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

OCC Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosCB2
Cash FlowCaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 655 signals.

References

  1. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  4. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  5. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  6. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  7. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OCC stock?
A: OCC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is OCC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes OCC Stock.
Q: Is Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Optical Cable Corporation Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OCC stock?
A: The consensus rating for OCC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for OCC stock?
A: The prediction period for OCC is (n+8 weeks)

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