AC Investment Research

ODV:TSXV Osisko Development Corp. Research Report

Outlook: Osisko Development Corp. assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications.(Sureshkumar, K.K. and Elango, N.M., 2012. Performance analysis of stock price prediction using artificial neural network. Global journal of computer science and Technology.) We evaluate Osisko Development Corp. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ODV:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. How do you pick a stock?

ODV:TSXV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Osisko Development Corp. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ODV:TSXV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ODV:TSXV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ODV:TSXV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ODV:TSXV Osisko Development Corp.
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Osisko Development Corp.

  1. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
  2. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.
  3. If a financial asset contains a contractual term that could change the timing or amount of contractual cash flows (for example, if the asset can be prepaid before maturity or its term can be extended), the entity must determine whether the contractual cash flows that could arise over the life of the instrument due to that contractual term are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. To make this determination, the entity must assess the contractual cash flows that could arise both before, and after, the change in contractual cash flows. The entity may also need to assess the nature of any contingent event (ie the trigger) that would change the timing or amount of the contractual cash flows. While the nature of the contingent event in itself is not a determinative factor in assessing whether the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest, it may be an indicator. For example, compare a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if the debtor misses a particular number of payments to a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if a specified equity index reaches a particular level. It is more likely in the former case that the contractual cash flows over the life of the instrument will be solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding because of the relationship between missed payments and an increase in credit risk. (See also paragraph B4.1.18.)
  4. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Osisko Development Corp. assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ODV:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for ODV:TSXV Osisko Development Corp. Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 8250
Market Risk6569
Technical Analysis7535
Fundamental Analysis4147
Risk Unsystematic3752

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 749 signals.

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  4. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  5. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  6. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
  7. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ODV:TSXV stock?
A: ODV:TSXV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is ODV:TSXV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ODV:TSXV Stock.
Q: Is Osisko Development Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Osisko Development Corp. is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ODV:TSXV stock?
A: The consensus rating for ODV:TSXV is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ODV:TSXV stock?
A: The prediction period for ODV:TSXV is (n+3 month)

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