Modelling A.I. in Economics

OPFI OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock

Outlook: OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and increased computational capabilities, programmed methods of prediction have proved to be more efficient in predicting stock prices.(Di Persio, L. and Honchar, O., 2016. Artificial neural networks architectures for stock price prediction: Comparisons and applications. International journal of circuits, systems and signal processing, 10(2016), pp.403-413.) We evaluate OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OPFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes OPFI stock.

AC Investment Research

Key Points

  1. Trading Signals
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

OPFI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of OPFI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OPFI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OPFI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OPFI OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes OPFI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock

  1. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
  3. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
  4. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OPFI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes OPFI stock.

Financial State Forecast for OPFI OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 7664
Market Risk3879
Technical Analysis4043
Fundamental Analysis8762
Risk Unsystematic6971

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 822 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  3. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  4. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  5. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  6. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OPFI stock?
A: OPFI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is OPFI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes OPFI Stock.
Q: Is OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for OppFi Inc. Class A Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OPFI stock?
A: The consensus rating for OPFI is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for OPFI stock?
A: The prediction period for OPFI is (n+1 year)

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