Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock Research Report

## Summary

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We evaluate Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PRLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PRLD stock.

## Key Points

1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
2. Game Theory
3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

## PRLD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PRLD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PRLD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## PRLD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PRLD Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PRLD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock

1. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
2. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
3. For example, when the critical terms (such as the nominal amount, maturity and underlying) of the hedging instrument and the hedged item match or are closely aligned, it might be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a qualitative assessment of those critical terms that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that will generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk and hence that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6).
4. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PRLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PRLD stock.

### Financial State Forecast for PRLD Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 8765
Market Risk4047
Technical Analysis7377
Fundamental Analysis3749
Risk Unsystematic6788

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 513 signals.

## References

1. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
2. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
3. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
4. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
5. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
6. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
7. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PRLD stock?
A: PRLD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is PRLD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PRLD Stock.
Q: Is Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Prelude Therapeutics Incorporated Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PRLD stock?
A: The consensus rating for PRLD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PRLD stock?
A: The prediction period for PRLD is (n+3 month)