PWOD Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA.(Nelson, D.M., Pereira, A.C. and De Oliveira, R.A., 2017, May. Stock market's price movement prediction with LSTM neural networks. In 2017 International joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN) (pp. 1419-1426). Ieee.) We evaluate Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PWOD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PWOD stock.

Key Points

1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
2. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
3. Market Signals

PWOD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PWOD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PWOD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PWOD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PWOD Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PWOD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock

1. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
3. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
4. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PWOD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PWOD stock.

Financial State Forecast for PWOD Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	Ba2
Operational Risk	82	72
Market Risk	79	86
Technical Analysis	62	57
Fundamental Analysis	75	74
Risk Unsystematic	85	51

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 692 signals.

References

1. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
2. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
3. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
4. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
6. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PWOD stock?
A: PWOD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is PWOD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PWOD Stock.
Q: Is Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Penns Woods Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PWOD stock?
A: The consensus rating for PWOD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PWOD stock?
A: The prediction period for PWOD is (n+16 weeks)

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