RBA:TSX Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated

Outlook: Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

Abstract

Understanding the pattern of financial activities and predicting their development and changes are research hotspots in academic and financial circles. Because financial data contain complex, incomplete and fuzzy information, predicting their development trends is an extremely difficult challenge. Fluctuations in financial data depend on a myriad of correlated constantly changing factors. Therefore, predicting and analysing financial data are a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. Deep neural networks (DNNs) combine the advantages of deep learning (DL) and neural networks and can be used to solve nonlinear problems more satisfactorily compared to conventional machine learning algorithms.(Jordan, M.I. and Mitchell, T.M., 2015. Machine learning: Trends, perspectives, and prospects. Science, 349(6245), pp.255-260.) We evaluate Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RBA:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
2. Operational Risk
3. Investment Risk

RBA:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of RBA:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RBA:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RBA:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RBA:TSX Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated

1. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
2. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
3. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
4. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RBA:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for RBA:TSX Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	Baa2
Operational Risk	59	88
Market Risk	65	68
Technical Analysis	82	86
Fundamental Analysis	73	74
Risk Unsystematic	87	67

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 719 signals.

References

1. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
2. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
3. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
4. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
5. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
7. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for RBA:TSX stock?
A: RBA:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is RBA:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes RBA:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RBA:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for RBA:TSX is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for RBA:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for RBA:TSX is (n+1 year)

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